Friday, November 28, 2008

Organizational Review: Top Prospect List

On top of following the Yankees in a religious manner, I also keep close tabs on all of the organizations top prospects throughout all levels of the minors. Now that the 2008 season has come to a close and the hot stove league has yet to heat up, it is the perfect time to offer my own top prospect list. Note that to make things less confusing, I am leaving players that have MLB service time under their belts off of this list. That includes the likes of Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Gardner, etc. Also note that I perhaps put more emphasis on potential and raw skills than others may. So here are my picks for the top 10 prospects in the system:

1. Austin Jackson - CF - This kid is the real deal. His primary sport just a few years ago was basketball, so his baseball skills are still lagging behind his general athletic ability, but its catching up very quickly. He is improving on his plate discipline, getting on base more often, playing great defense, and stealing bases. Hopefully he gets MLB ready as quickly as possible, because we all know how badly we need a real center fielder.

2. Jesus Montero - C - I know he's very far away from the majors, but he is the best hitting prospect we have. He absolutely mashed the ball in class A Charleston this year, hitting .326 and 17 homers. While some scouts say his large frame may cause him to grow into a first baseman rather than a catcher, the fact remains that if he continues on his current development path, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the middle of our lineup.

3. Mark Melancon - CL - What, a relief pitcher at #3? Yeah I know, get over it. Melancon projects as the heir to the great Mariano Rivera's throne. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Melanon soared through the minors putting up ERA's 2.84, 1.81, and 2.70 through A, AA, and AAA respectively. In combined 95 innings Mark struck out 89 hitters and only gave up 69 hits. That's right, 20 more strikeouts than hits allowed. The key for him will be to bring his walks down (22), but this kid is a beast. He showed the ability to pitch anywhere from 1 out of an inning to 4 consecutive innings, and from the interviews I've seen, he has the personality of Derek Jeter: always says the right thing, always puts the team first, and emerges as a clubhouse leader.

4. Andrew Brackman - RHP - Pretty aggressive placement, I know. Brackman has thrown only 14 winter league innings since college and his subsequent TJ surgery. However, there is so much upside here its hard to ignore. Brackman is built like Randy Johnson (same height I think too - 6'10'') and can hit triple digits when he reaches back for it. This kid has an excellent fastball and a plus curveball. Watch this guy carefully.

5. Austin Romine - C - Romine is going through the system along side Montero and splitting time at catcher with him. Romine doesn't have the power that Montero does, but still hit an even .300, he strikes out less often and plays better defense. Montero's offensive skills probably outweigh Romine's defensive advantages, but Romine would register as a top catching prospect just about anywhere, and rightfully so. He's got a better shot at staying a catcher than Montero does too.

6. Dellin Betances - RHP - Pretty much the same deal as Brackman, minus the TJ surgey. Big guy (6'7''), throws really hard, and has a plus power curve. Betances was 9-4 with a 3.67 ERA for class A Charleston in 2008. While that doesn't look spectacular on the surface, you must keep in mind the mechanics problems tall, lanky pitchers have. The taller you are, generally the harder it is to repeat your motion. Randy Johnson didn't put it together until he was 25, and Betances is still only 20. This year was a huge step forward for Betances as he battles with his biggest problem: control. While he still needs to cut down on his walks, he has shown improvement there. Oh, and he struck out 135 hitters in 115 innings.

7. Zach McAllister - RHP - Another young, strong starter. Zach had a real breakout season in 2008, putting up ERAs of 2.45 and 1.83 between Charleston and Tampa respectively. Not only that, but one of Zach's strengths is a exactly what most minor league pitching prospects lack: control. He posted an impressive 5.48 K/BB ratio. As a point of comparison, CC Sabathia's 251 strikeouts in 2008 landed him with a 4.25 K/BB ratio. And he's also only 20 years old.

8. Fransisco Cervelli - C - Cervelli is our catching prospect closer to the majors. He is largely hailed as a clone of Dioner Navarro: excellent defense and a solid bat. In his injury shortened season (the infamous collision during a spring training game with the Rays), Cervelli hit .315 for AA Trenton. Cervelli would likely have gone higher on the list had he gotten more playing time, but he remains a strong possibility to be Posada's backup catcher in 2010 after Molina's contract is up, just like Posada was brought up to be tutored by Joe Girardi a decade ago.

9. Jairo Heredia - RHP - Coming off of a strong 2007 (his first professional season), Heredia posted a nice 3.20 ERA for Charleston in 2008. His 95 strikeouts in 102.1 innings is encouraging, but he needs to bring his walks down (43). A 2.21 K/BB ratio isn't impressing many people. However, the talent and the ability is there. He was more aggressive in 2008, going after hitters, getting ahead in the count. He spots his fastball very well and has a nasty curveball that, when he spots it well, is pretty much unhittable. They keys for Heredia to move up this list: work on spotting the curveball and improve the quality of his changeup. If he does those two things, he's going to be a guy to watch. And fortunately, he's got plenty of time thanks to his age. Its worth noting that his manager while he was in the Gulf Coast League in 2007 nicknamed him "Pedro Jr." because his raw stuff resembles that of a young Pedro Martinez.

10. Zachary Kroenke - LHP - Yet another talented pitching prospect (and...OMG a lefty!?!?!). In 43 AA Trenton innings, Kroenke went 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA before being called up to AAA SWB where he threw 10 innings, scattering 7 hits, 2 walks, surrendering only 2 earned runs and whiffing 10. The big lefty has good command with his fastball and is very durable. He, like many of his peers, needs to focus on development of his changeup and command in general. Kroenke is an aggressive pitcher and is adept at working both sides of the plate and keeping hitters off-balance. Depending on what happens with Phil Coke, Kroenke may be utilized in the bullpen, where he can add a few mph to his fastball.

Honorable mentions: Christian Garcia (RHP), David Robertson (RHP), Brandon Laird (3B), Juan Miranda (1B), Humberto Sanchez (RHP)

Well that's what I came up with. I have yet to see any prospect lists that reflect the entirety of the 2008 season, so I for one am curious to see whether I'm smart or completely off my rocker. Once Baseball America, Baseball Prospetus, and other reputable places come out with their own lists, I'll do a follow-up post to get to the heart of that question. Stay tuned.

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