On top of following the Yankees in a religious manner, I also keep close tabs on all of the organizations top prospects throughout all levels of the minors. Now that the 2008 season has come to a close and the hot stove league has yet to heat up, it is the perfect time to offer my own top prospect list. Note that to make things less confusing, I am leaving players that have MLB service time under their belts off of this list. That includes the likes of Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Gardner, etc. Also note that I perhaps put more emphasis on potential and raw skills than others may. So here are my picks for the top 10 prospects in the system:
1. Austin Jackson - CF - This kid is the real deal. His primary sport just a few years ago was basketball, so his baseball skills are still lagging behind his general athletic ability, but its catching up very quickly. He is improving on his plate discipline, getting on base more often, playing great defense, and stealing bases. Hopefully he gets MLB ready as quickly as possible, because we all know how badly we need a real center fielder.
2. Jesus Montero - C - I know he's very far away from the majors, but he is the best hitting prospect we have. He absolutely mashed the ball in class A Charleston this year, hitting .326 and 17 homers. While some scouts say his large frame may cause him to grow into a first baseman rather than a catcher, the fact remains that if he continues on his current development path, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the middle of our lineup.
3. Mark Melancon - CL - What, a relief pitcher at #3? Yeah I know, get over it. Melancon projects as the heir to the great Mariano Rivera's throne. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Melanon soared through the minors putting up ERA's 2.84, 1.81, and 2.70 through A, AA, and AAA respectively. In combined 95 innings Mark struck out 89 hitters and only gave up 69 hits. That's right, 20 more strikeouts than hits allowed. The key for him will be to bring his walks down (22), but this kid is a beast. He showed the ability to pitch anywhere from 1 out of an inning to 4 consecutive innings, and from the interviews I've seen, he has the personality of Derek Jeter: always says the right thing, always puts the team first, and emerges as a clubhouse leader.
4. Andrew Brackman - RHP - Pretty aggressive placement, I know. Brackman has thrown only 14 winter league innings since college and his subsequent TJ surgery. However, there is so much upside here its hard to ignore. Brackman is built like Randy Johnson (same height I think too - 6'10'') and can hit triple digits when he reaches back for it. This kid has an excellent fastball and a plus curveball. Watch this guy carefully.
5. Austin Romine - C - Romine is going through the system along side Montero and splitting time at catcher with him. Romine doesn't have the power that Montero does, but still hit an even .300, he strikes out less often and plays better defense. Montero's offensive skills probably outweigh Romine's defensive advantages, but Romine would register as a top catching prospect just about anywhere, and rightfully so. He's got a better shot at staying a catcher than Montero does too.
6. Dellin Betances - RHP - Pretty much the same deal as Brackman, minus the TJ surgey. Big guy (6'7''), throws really hard, and has a plus power curve. Betances was 9-4 with a 3.67 ERA for class A Charleston in 2008. While that doesn't look spectacular on the surface, you must keep in mind the mechanics problems tall, lanky pitchers have. The taller you are, generally the harder it is to repeat your motion. Randy Johnson didn't put it together until he was 25, and Betances is still only 20. This year was a huge step forward for Betances as he battles with his biggest problem: control. While he still needs to cut down on his walks, he has shown improvement there. Oh, and he struck out 135 hitters in 115 innings.
7. Zach McAllister - RHP - Another young, strong starter. Zach had a real breakout season in 2008, putting up ERAs of 2.45 and 1.83 between Charleston and Tampa respectively. Not only that, but one of Zach's strengths is a exactly what most minor league pitching prospects lack: control. He posted an impressive 5.48 K/BB ratio. As a point of comparison, CC Sabathia's 251 strikeouts in 2008 landed him with a 4.25 K/BB ratio. And he's also only 20 years old.
8. Fransisco Cervelli - C - Cervelli is our catching prospect closer to the majors. He is largely hailed as a clone of Dioner Navarro: excellent defense and a solid bat. In his injury shortened season (the infamous collision during a spring training game with the Rays), Cervelli hit .315 for AA Trenton. Cervelli would likely have gone higher on the list had he gotten more playing time, but he remains a strong possibility to be Posada's backup catcher in 2010 after Molina's contract is up, just like Posada was brought up to be tutored by Joe Girardi a decade ago.
9. Jairo Heredia - RHP - Coming off of a strong 2007 (his first professional season), Heredia posted a nice 3.20 ERA for Charleston in 2008. His 95 strikeouts in 102.1 innings is encouraging, but he needs to bring his walks down (43). A 2.21 K/BB ratio isn't impressing many people. However, the talent and the ability is there. He was more aggressive in 2008, going after hitters, getting ahead in the count. He spots his fastball very well and has a nasty curveball that, when he spots it well, is pretty much unhittable. They keys for Heredia to move up this list: work on spotting the curveball and improve the quality of his changeup. If he does those two things, he's going to be a guy to watch. And fortunately, he's got plenty of time thanks to his age. Its worth noting that his manager while he was in the Gulf Coast League in 2007 nicknamed him "Pedro Jr." because his raw stuff resembles that of a young Pedro Martinez.
10. Zachary Kroenke - LHP - Yet another talented pitching prospect (and...OMG a lefty!?!?!). In 43 AA Trenton innings, Kroenke went 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA before being called up to AAA SWB where he threw 10 innings, scattering 7 hits, 2 walks, surrendering only 2 earned runs and whiffing 10. The big lefty has good command with his fastball and is very durable. He, like many of his peers, needs to focus on development of his changeup and command in general. Kroenke is an aggressive pitcher and is adept at working both sides of the plate and keeping hitters off-balance. Depending on what happens with Phil Coke, Kroenke may be utilized in the bullpen, where he can add a few mph to his fastball.
Honorable mentions: Christian Garcia (RHP), David Robertson (RHP), Brandon Laird (3B), Juan Miranda (1B), Humberto Sanchez (RHP)
Well that's what I came up with. I have yet to see any prospect lists that reflect the entirety of the 2008 season, so I for one am curious to see whether I'm smart or completely off my rocker. Once Baseball America, Baseball Prospetus, and other reputable places come out with their own lists, I'll do a follow-up post to get to the heart of that question. Stay tuned.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Thanksgiving update
Happy Thanksgiving Yankee fans! Things have been pretty slow so far in the still-young hot stove season. But here is what is going on:
Sabathia is still sitting on the Yanks' 6 year $140 million offer. No need to be alarmed there. I know our offer would make Sabathia the most well paid pitcher in baseball, and some are interpreting his failure to jump on it as an indication that he doesn't want to sign with New York. I find this a rather naive point of view. Sabathia and his agent are simply waiting to hear out other teams and field their offers as well. I realize that nobody is going to outbid the Yankees outright, but Sabathia could be just trying to get a counter offer from the Yanks of a few million more. Still worth it if you ask me. Sabathia is a beast and our rotation goes from mediocre to above-average with his addition.
Teixeira reportedly has a few offers on the table, but nobody knows from who. Most likely Boras trying to get some leverage with the Angels. I would love to see Tex in pinstripes, but my prediction of him resigning with the Halos stands. Tex is their biggest need, so that is where they're gonna throw their money.
Burnett wants 5 years, which is a bit much considering his injury history. Speaking of which, greatn article comparing him with Ben Sheets. I'm coming around to the opinion that Sheets would be a better signing. Both are type A's (assuming Sheets is offered arbitration), both have similar stuff, and both have long injury histories. However, after looking at it closely, Sheets seems to be perhaps slightly less of a risk. And, due to a muscle tear at the end of the season he can be had for less years than Burnett. I'm guessing he would sign for 3 years, maybe with a 4th option year. So do we get Burnett, who's already 31, on a 5 year deal or Sheets, who's 30, on a 3 year deal? Either way is a gamble. Either guy could become the next Amerian Idle (Carl Pavano). Either guy could turn a corner and contribute. I'd rather hedge my bets with Sheets. I wouldnt be upset with Burnett at all, but 5 years is a lot for a guy thats only hit 200 innings 3 times in his 9-year career (one of which was 2008, which became a contract year).
That's pretty much it...I wish I had more to write, because that would mean we somebody was actually signed. Teixeira and Sabathia have both expressed that they'd like deals done before Christmas, so hopefully we'll have something soon.
Sabathia is still sitting on the Yanks' 6 year $140 million offer. No need to be alarmed there. I know our offer would make Sabathia the most well paid pitcher in baseball, and some are interpreting his failure to jump on it as an indication that he doesn't want to sign with New York. I find this a rather naive point of view. Sabathia and his agent are simply waiting to hear out other teams and field their offers as well. I realize that nobody is going to outbid the Yankees outright, but Sabathia could be just trying to get a counter offer from the Yanks of a few million more. Still worth it if you ask me. Sabathia is a beast and our rotation goes from mediocre to above-average with his addition.
Teixeira reportedly has a few offers on the table, but nobody knows from who. Most likely Boras trying to get some leverage with the Angels. I would love to see Tex in pinstripes, but my prediction of him resigning with the Halos stands. Tex is their biggest need, so that is where they're gonna throw their money.
Burnett wants 5 years, which is a bit much considering his injury history. Speaking of which, greatn article comparing him with Ben Sheets. I'm coming around to the opinion that Sheets would be a better signing. Both are type A's (assuming Sheets is offered arbitration), both have similar stuff, and both have long injury histories. However, after looking at it closely, Sheets seems to be perhaps slightly less of a risk. And, due to a muscle tear at the end of the season he can be had for less years than Burnett. I'm guessing he would sign for 3 years, maybe with a 4th option year. So do we get Burnett, who's already 31, on a 5 year deal or Sheets, who's 30, on a 3 year deal? Either way is a gamble. Either guy could become the next Amerian Idle (Carl Pavano). Either guy could turn a corner and contribute. I'd rather hedge my bets with Sheets. I wouldnt be upset with Burnett at all, but 5 years is a lot for a guy thats only hit 200 innings 3 times in his 9-year career (one of which was 2008, which became a contract year).
That's pretty much it...I wish I had more to write, because that would mean we somebody was actually signed. Teixeira and Sabathia have both expressed that they'd like deals done before Christmas, so hopefully we'll have something soon.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Discussing the Swisher Deal
So far, the biggest move made by the Yanks in the still very young 2008 Hot Stove League has been to trade a few assorted prospects for Nick Swisher of the White Sox. Good move, bad move, or "eh" move? Despite a quick glance at Swish's 2008 batting line (.219/.332/.410), it was definitely a good move. Here's why:
Swish may have only hit .219 this year, but in all fairness, it was a down year. Swisher is more of a .250-.260 hitter (Giambi-esque) that hits for power. Despite his poor batting line, Swish still hit 24 homers and knocked in 69 runs. Swisher is capable of hitting 20-35 homers a season and can knock in close to 100 runs, as shown by his career lines (he has averaged slightly over 25 homers a season for his career). Swisher also provided better defense that Giambi at first, and has the flexibility of playing a corner OF position and occasionally CF in a pinch. Swisher is still young (27) and a former first round pick. He has good speed, he's athletic and is reported to be a great clubhouse guy. Swisher also takes a lot of walks and despite his poor BA, his OBP remains strong. At least now we have an option at first in the event Teixeira signs elsewhere.
Not to mention that we hardly gave up anything. Marquez was a decent prospect, but he got roughed up for most of the 2008 season. To be honest, Marquez had no shot of making our rotation in the near future. With guys like Wang, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy ahead of him on the depth charts a potential Sabathia signing, a potential Lowe/Burnett signing, and a plethora of minor league pitching talent below the AAA level (McCallister, Betances, Brackman, etc.), Marquez became expendable. Jhonny Nunez was basically a spare part that filled a roster spot on a minor league affiliate...no biggie there. We also gave up Wilson Betemit...oh no, not Betemit!!! Haha seriously though. We have guys in AAA that can come up and be the utility guy. Betemit will be easy to replace.
Now the pluses in terms of the Teixeira hunt: Swish gives us insurane if we don't sign him. He also gives us leverage in contract discussions with Boras and Tex...we don't NEED Tex now. We have somebody else who can legitimately play 1B for us. This could strengthen our position now that Boras can't convince the Yankees to give Teixeira a blank check.
And depth. We all saw what happened when we lost Posada and Matsui. Coupled with a down year from guys like Cano and Melky, we just didn't have the depth to plug those holes. Swisher gives us a versitile, relatively cheap player that can provide us that depth as well.
All in all, it was a great deal, and Brian Cashman is the man. Most GMs were shocked that Cash got Swisher for so little. Some experts were saying prior to the trade it would take an Ian Kennedy to get Swish. So kudos to Cashman, and keep the solutions coming!
Swish may have only hit .219 this year, but in all fairness, it was a down year. Swisher is more of a .250-.260 hitter (Giambi-esque) that hits for power. Despite his poor batting line, Swish still hit 24 homers and knocked in 69 runs. Swisher is capable of hitting 20-35 homers a season and can knock in close to 100 runs, as shown by his career lines (he has averaged slightly over 25 homers a season for his career). Swisher also provided better defense that Giambi at first, and has the flexibility of playing a corner OF position and occasionally CF in a pinch. Swisher is still young (27) and a former first round pick. He has good speed, he's athletic and is reported to be a great clubhouse guy. Swisher also takes a lot of walks and despite his poor BA, his OBP remains strong. At least now we have an option at first in the event Teixeira signs elsewhere.
Not to mention that we hardly gave up anything. Marquez was a decent prospect, but he got roughed up for most of the 2008 season. To be honest, Marquez had no shot of making our rotation in the near future. With guys like Wang, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy ahead of him on the depth charts a potential Sabathia signing, a potential Lowe/Burnett signing, and a plethora of minor league pitching talent below the AAA level (McCallister, Betances, Brackman, etc.), Marquez became expendable. Jhonny Nunez was basically a spare part that filled a roster spot on a minor league affiliate...no biggie there. We also gave up Wilson Betemit...oh no, not Betemit!!! Haha seriously though. We have guys in AAA that can come up and be the utility guy. Betemit will be easy to replace.
Now the pluses in terms of the Teixeira hunt: Swish gives us insurane if we don't sign him. He also gives us leverage in contract discussions with Boras and Tex...we don't NEED Tex now. We have somebody else who can legitimately play 1B for us. This could strengthen our position now that Boras can't convince the Yankees to give Teixeira a blank check.
And depth. We all saw what happened when we lost Posada and Matsui. Coupled with a down year from guys like Cano and Melky, we just didn't have the depth to plug those holes. Swisher gives us a versitile, relatively cheap player that can provide us that depth as well.
All in all, it was a great deal, and Brian Cashman is the man. Most GMs were shocked that Cash got Swisher for so little. Some experts were saying prior to the trade it would take an Ian Kennedy to get Swish. So kudos to Cashman, and keep the solutions coming!
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