Monday, October 13, 2008

Checking in on the Farm

Good morning Yankee fans! Sorry for the lack of posts, but its been a bit slow since we're in that weird limbo between the true start of the offseason and the Yankee-less playoffs. Curious what some of our prospects are up to so far in winter/fall leagues? The Yankees assigned a few prospects Waikiki BeachBoys (Hawaii Winter League) and the Peoria Javelinas (Arizona Fall League). For your guidance, the AFL is a higher level of competition then the HWL.

HWL:
Damon Sublett: Sublett is a young middle infield prospect with a good arm and good pop in his bat. He was impressive in his pro debut for class A- Staten Island in 2007, but fell a little short of expectations in Charleston. So far in the HWL, Sublett is hitting a healthy .289/.325/.500. I'd like to see his strikeouts go down (15 in 10 games) and his walks go up (2). Sublett isn't a top prospect, but that doesn't mean he can't learn and grow into one.

Jeremy Bleich: Bleich was the highest draft pick that we actually signed in 2008, since Gerrit Cole never signed (Bleich was taken in the supplemental round). The lefty so far in the HWL is off to a nice start at 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 4 starts. He's got 14 strikeouts in 18.1 innings and 8 walks. I'd like to see a better K/BB ratio, but 14/8 isn't too bad. Most of those walks came in his first two starts anyway.

Andrew Brackman: Our first round pic from 2007, the tall right-hander missed all of 2008 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Brackman s 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA. I know that looks ugly, but he's only pitched 14.2 innings since major elbow recontruction surgery and he hasn't thrown a pitch in over a year. Trust me, Brackman has the talent, he has the body (he's 6'10'') and he has the head. His 16 strikeouts in this 14.2 innings is a good sign, but he also needs to cut down on his walks (11). Give him some time before he gets labeled as a bust too. He was much better in his most recent start:
5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

Austin Romine: Romine is one of our top catching prospects. He is young, but had a standout season in class A Charleston. So far in the HWL he's hitting at .269/.355/.346. He'll turn it around. He hit .300 over the course of the Charleston season. Romine left his last game after being hit by a pitch on his wrist. No word yet on an injury, but hopefully its nothing serious.

Now for the AFL:
Juan Miranda: Miranda, our lefty hitting, righty-mashing, potential first base platoonman, is off to a hot start down in Arizona. He's played in 8 games so far, hitting an impressive .452/.514/.871. In those 8 games, Miranda has 1 homer, 2 triples, 6 doubles, and 7 RBIs. If he keeps up this pace (or even a pace below it) he will likely make the 25 man roster and may even find himself a starting gig if we don't sign Teixeira.

Austin Jackson: Our top position player prospect. Jackson got off to a hot start in his firts few games, cooled off until he dipped below the Mendoza line, and is now in th eprocess of resurging again. Currently AJax is sitting at .267/.306/.400. Obviously that is not reflective of Jackson's talent. We all know he is capable of more, especially in the hitters league that the AFL is. JThe season is still young, so I will assume he will find his groove soon enough. The main thing he needs to work on are his strikeouts. 11 K's in 11 games isn't what we want to see. However, with his recent hot hitting, he has been named to the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game. Its basially an all-star game for top-prospects.

Kevin Russo: The Yankees appear to be grooming Russo to be a super-sub kind of utility player. The heir to Wilson Betemit, I suppose. Russo doesn't have the glove that some guys to, but he's more of a healthy balance between glove and bat than a lot of utility guys. The key for Russo will be to show is versitility by playing multiple positions and keep up a decent batting line. So far Russo has impressed. He has rotated through 2B, 3B, SS, and LF so far and is holding a .323/.382/.387 batting line. Russo could make a nice piece of trade bait or another utility player if he keeps it up.

Phil Hughes: Ah, the famous Phil Phranchise. He has been struggling a bit, going 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA in his first 3 starts. His 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings is nice, but he needs to come down on his walks (8). Hopefully Phil turns it around soon. He was also named to the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game.

Jeff Marquez: He is pitching out of the bullpen this time, although he is normally a starter. He seems to be finding some success there however, as his line looks like this so far though 4 games: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 7 K. Good looking line (2.70 ERA), but he needs to come down on the walks. Maybe he'll stay in the pen if he has success there, since the Yanks have good depth for starters.

Kevin Whelan: Whelan came over in the Gary Sheffield trade. In 3 games, he's thrown 4.2 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts and only 1 walk. Whelan is also pitching out of the pen, as he usually does. He's got great stuff, but has had problems with control in the past. He could be a great future addition to our bullpen if he shows that he has finally worked out the kinks.

Humberto Sanchez: Came over in the Randy Johnson trade. He has been going back and forth between starter and reliever, but is pitching out of the pen this winter. He's off to a rough start at 0-1 13.50 ERA in 2.2 innings. Still, he's got the stuff and he is, after all, just coming back from TJ surgery as well. Give him some time.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Filling in the Question Marks: The Rotation (Part II)

Ok, folks, now we're going to look at free agents/possible trades the Yanks might make. I'm not going to bother much with my own trade speculation, just because when you're dealing with the Yankees, almost every good pitcher will have some level of trade speculation around them. Without further ado, your potential rotation cogs:

1. Mike Mussina: The Moose had a renaissance year, going 20-9 with an impressive 3.37 ERA, his first 20-win season in his illustrious career. I am all for bringing Moose back. He proved that his new style of pitching backwards works because he has such great command of his knuckle-curve that he had no problem dropping it in there for first-pitch strikes. He would probably require a 2-3 year deal. I know we want to get younger, but I think it is also important to have a veteran presence on a staff. And what better veteran than the guy who put up Cy Young numbers this season? Want to know why this season wasn't a fluke? Moose has AMAZNG control. This season, Mussina walked only 31 batters. That is the lowest mark in his ENTIRE career with at least 150 innings (he had 200.1 innings this season). On top of that, he had 150 strikeouts. I don't know about you guys, but I'll take a 4.84 K/BB ratio without question. That being said, I hear he is leaning towards retirement. Only time will tell.

2. Andy Pettite: The Pettite situation is a little bit more delicate. He has been a great Yankee, and I will always love Andy, but I think it is time to let him go. His age is catching up to him, and his breaking pitches aren't of Mussina's caliber in order to try his hand at "pitching backwards". Pettite has always relied on his fastball to set up hitters, and he just can't do it anymore. In the second half in 2008, Pettite was 4-7 with a 5.35 ERA, giving up 96 hits in 79 innings! It is time to thank Andy for his years of committment and be on our merry way. I only hope this doesn't turn into a Bernie Williams type standoff, since Pettie has expressed intered in pitching in the new stadium.

3. C.C. Sabathia: Yes, the big name everyone keeps talking about. Sabathia is 2007's AL Cy Young winner, and he finished 2008 with an impressive 17-10, a 2.70 ERA, 251 strikeouts in 253 innings, and even threw 10 complete games. He has never pitched less than 180 innings in a season. Simply put, the guy is a workhorse, and an extremely talented, lefted handed one at that. The Yankees need to make a strong push for Sabathia. With him leading a rotation followed by Wang and Joba, we will contend for the best front-3 in the league. However, I disagree with the journalists out there claiming we need to go "all in" on Sabathia. Too many years could present a problem for a guy of his weight and a guy coming off of a 253 inning season. I would go no more than 6 years on Sabathia...something like $140 million. Sabathia will open the 2009 season at the age of 28. Is 6 years really so bad? He will be a free agent at 34, which is presumably before he declines too much. At 34, we can let him walk if we please. I know there are injury risks between the 6 years, but the bottom line is this: there is a risk with EVERY pitcher. If you want to sign an impact player, you can't skimp out on the years because maybe someday in a few years his elbow will hurt. If you operate with that logic, you will be the Kansas City Royals. I can understand not wanting to give a monster contract to someone older. If Sabathia was 31 or 32, I wouldn't want to give him 6 years either. But the fact his Sabathia is in his prime, and he will remain in his prime for at least 3-5 years. And a pitcher of Sabathia's caliber will still be good in the years in which he is not great. However, there have been reports that he likes the NL, the west coast, and he enjoys hitting. We'll see.

4. Ben Sheets: If we're going to talk about a guy who injury risks aren't pure speculation, we can talk about Ben Sheets. Sheets is a very talented pitcher. He went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, and pitched 198.1 innings. Sounds good, right? Wrong. Sheets, a well known injury risk, broke down right at the end of the season with more elbow trouble. If there is ANYONE we want to avoid a multiyear deal with, it is Ben Sheets. Besides, you always have to be at least a little wary when you transfer a pitcher from the NL Central to the AL East.
UPDATE: This just in from Sheets' Agent, Casey Close:
"His forearm muscle [strain] was the equivalent of a hamstring pull and it simply needed time to rest. No real treatment was needed. He's fine and should be 100 percent in a month." Interesting. Still, he is the largest injury risk in this group.

5. A.J. Burnett: Assuming Burnett opts out of just current contract with the Blue Jays (indications are that he will), he will be a good target for the Yanks. Burnett is a well established force in the AL East, and when he is healthy he can shut down good offenses. I think Burnett's ability to stay healthy at least most of the season is underrated. In his last 5 seasons, Burnett has averaged 170.1 innings. If the Yanks can get 170 innings out of Burnett for the duration of his 3-5 year deal (that's what the guesses are around), I think the Yankees will be quite happy. Oh, and in his 3 years in the AL East since coming over from the Marlins, Burnette is a career 5-0 against the Red Sox with a 2.56 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 56.1 innings. Sign me up. He'd be cheaper than Sabathia and require less years. I do not advise signing them both, however, since I would like to see money left over to sign Teixeira.

6. Derek Lowe: Lowe is another ingruiging option, and a solid plan C if we cannot get either Sabathia or Burnett. Lowe was 14-11 this season with a nice 3.24 ERA. He's a sinker-baller like Wang. Before we jump on him for pitching in the NL West, he is also a career 70-55 in the AL East with a 3.72 ERA. The only problem with Lowe, is that he's 35, and coming off of the year he had, he will likely want at least 3 years. Do we go for it and hope he doesn't drop off? Can he still pitch in the AL East? These are all legitimate questions, but we may have to forget them and sign him anyway if Sabathia and Burnett sign elsewhere.

7. Jake Peavy: San Diego reportedly has their ace on the trading block, since there are rumors that he is unhappy there. Well, who wouldn't be kind of pissed off when you have a 2.85 ERA, a .229 BAA and you actually have a LOSING reord at 10-11? The problem is, his talent, combined with his contract (cheap and signed for 4 more seasons) together would require something along the lines of Cano, Hughes, and Kennedy, or maybe sub one out and include Austin Jackson/Jesus Montero. No thank you. This deal will never happen now that Cashman is back, but since there have been rumors of "interest" by the Yankees (and who isn't "interested" in Jake Peavy?) I figured I might as well include him.

That's really all I can think of. I would include Matt Cain maybe, but he's even a further shot that Peavy (younger, cheaper, and the Giants don't want to trade him). So in summary, sign Sabathia. If Sabathia wants too many years or just signs elsewhere, sign Burnett if he opts out. If he doesn't opt out or signs elsewhere, sign Lowe. Sign Teixeira in any event. This will be the most interesting storyline for Yankee fans to follow this offseason.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Filling in the Question Marks: The Rotation (Part I)

Good morning, Yankee fans! I am currently running on a mere two hours of sleep, thanks in part to a night of...well of being a fraternity brother, to be honest. My body is artificially running on coffee for the time being, so I think I am going to use some of my (temporary) excess energy for baseball.

So far, the 2009 starting rotation looks like this: Wang, Joba, ?, ?, ?. No contending team in its right mind would start the season with three question marks in the rotation. Its obvious that moves need to be made to shore up our starting pitching. The talent that we do have penciled into the rotation (Wang and Joba) is promising, and 2008 gives us hope of the strongest bullpen in recent memory for the 2009 Yanks. The right addition(s) to our rotation could give us one of the strongest pitching staffs in baseball. I'm going to start with internal options, but expect a post on external options in the next few days. Quick note: I am leaving Mussina/Pettite discussion for the next post. Yes, I know they are sort of internal options anyway, but they are free agents, so I will group them as such.

Internal Options:

1. Phil Hughes: No doubt, Phil Phranchise had a disappointing 2008 campaign. Still, it is far too early to give up on him. He's only 22, and he has bounced back from his rib injury/need for glasses nicely. In the AAA playoffs, Hughes pitched 11 impressive innings, surrendering only 3 earned runs and piling up 15 strikeouts, while walking 5. This further adds to his growing reputation as a big game pitcher if we remember our only victory from the 2007 ALDS. In his short two game major league stint at the end of the season, Hughes went a total of 12 innings, and only gave up 3 runs and 2 walks and struck out out 10.

From what I have seen, he has some control issues with his fastball, but that can obviously be corrected with work. His curveball has some nasty bite on it, and he has shown the ability to throw it for strikes. His new pitch, the cutter, has also been successful so far for Hughes, as I have seen him break more then a few bats when he throws that cutter inside on lefties. My take on Hughes? He is almost ready, but he needs some more time/innings to continue to refine his cutter and his change-up. My hope is that Hughes can get into a grove and work out the kinks in the Arizona Fall League. Ultimately, what Hughes does in the fall league and how he does in spring training will determine what roster Hughes is on by the start of 2009. If he cruises and shows improvement, you can bet he will get a shot on the opening day rotation. If not, he will start at Scranton/WB until he is ready. Only time will tell.

2. Ian Kennedy: Kennedy is a little more interesting than Hughes. Kennedy did not have an injury to explain his poor 2008, leading some to believe he was a bust. Simply stated, those people are overreacting. He was drafted from USC in 2006 as a #1 pick. He's ranked top 50 minor league prospect by Baseball America in 2008. He pitched 1 game in 2006. Went a combined 12-3 with a 1.91 era in 26 starts in 2007 and blew through A, AA and AAA in his 1st year. Made it to the majors and pitched 3 games with a 1-0 and a 1.89 era. He struggled in 2008 starting with the Yanks and went 0-3 in 8 starts. Was sent down to the minors and went 6-3 in 13 starts with a 2.22 era.

Combined his minor league numbers are 18-6 with a 1.99 era in 226 innings in 2 years of professional baseball. He went 1-3 in 11 major league starts and 56 inning pitched with a crazy era of 5.56. Can we really say this guys is a bust based upon only 11 starts in the majors considering that he's been out of college for only 2 years? Compare him to the following starts by some of baseball's greats:

Greg Maddux (Drafted in '84)
-Spends 3 years in the minors.
-In '87 goes 6-14 with a 5.61 era in his rookie year.

Tom Glavine (Drafted in '84)
-Spends 4 years in the minors.
-In '88 goes 7-17 with a 4.56 era

John Smoltz (Drafted in '85)
-Spends 3 years in the minors
-In '88 goes 2-7 with a 5.48 era.

My point is give the kid a chance. He may have struggled in the majors, but he still maintained a 5-3 record with a 2.35 ERA in the minors this season, striking out 72 hitters in 74 innings, and walking only 18. He's in the same boat as Hughes, except Kennedy is not playing in the fall league. If he comes out swinging (haha or pitching) in spring training, expect him to get a shot. Otherwise, he will sit in AAA and polish himself off in preparation for his next call up.

3. Chase Wright: Before you all flashback to the terrible game in Boston last year where Wright gave up back-to-back-to-back-to-back homers, consider this: between AA and AAA this season, Wright was a combined 10-3 with a 2.80 ERA. If he keeps up that kind of pitching, and considering he's a lefty, you have to assume he's got a legitimate shot with a great spring training.


4. Alfredo Aceves: Aceves was very impressive in his ML stint. In 30 innings, he went 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA (only gave up 8 earned runs). He breezed through the minors, and it appears as though his stuff translates into the majors. I'd say he has a good shot at being our #5 pitcher in 2009.

5. Darrell Rasner: Do I really need to make this argument? He was 5-10 with a 5.40 ERA, and he gave up 135 hits in 113.1 innings. Combined with his walks, and that's good for a 1.54 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched). Not good numbers. There seems to be plenty of decent competition for a rotation spot, especially if we get any outside help, so I highly doubt Rasner is on the opening day roster as anything other than a long man in the pen/mop-up guy.

6. Dan Giese: In the minors this year, Giese pitched 59 innings to the tune of a 1.98 ERA. In 43.1 major league innings, Giese had an impressive 3.53 ERA. I'd say he's the favorite of winning the long man/emergency starter roll on the opening day roster, but I suppose a rotation spot is always a possibility.


7. Phil Coke: You already know my stance on Coke. I know he was a starter in the minors, but he's a lefty and he was lights out from the pen in his major league stint. I think we have the rotational depth to leave him in the pen.


That's about all I can think of for now...let me know if you guys think I missed someone who actually has a legitimate shot. Anyway, my overall take on our internal options is a pretty good one. Depending on free agent signings, I think at least one or two of these guys will step up and contribute in 2009. The favorites are probably Hughes, Kennedy, and Aceves, but as Cashman as stated, nobody outside of Wang and Joba are guaranteed a spot in the rotation.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Revisiting Robbie

I know I already did a post on Cano, but I want to come back to the subject for a super-brief post that strengthens my point. As the hot stove is warming up, so are the talks about trading Cano because of his "sub-par year". Cano's final line ended up at .271/.305/.410. As I have previously stated, his biggest probem this year was not being lazy or not caring. It was April.

Robbie Cano's line from May 1st, 2008 until the end of the 2008 season:
.297/.326/.448

Yeah. A second baseman with above average defense (normally - he has a great arm and a smooth glove) that has the potential to hit .320 and belt 25 homers a year has more value than half the players that apparently are too good to trade Cano for. I've heard rumors for Nate McLouth, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Sanchez, Freddy Sanchez, and many, many others. I would like to remind Yankee fans, as well as fans of the other 29 teams, that Cano's "off year" is hardly an "off year". He is still a monster with the potential to win batting titles, hit for power, and play consistant defense. When Cano is hot, he can carry a team. I'm so sick of hearing Dodger fans bitch about the Cano-Kemp rumors because Cano isn't nearly good enough. Fine, keep Kemp, because we want to keep Cano. I'd still take Robbie over most of the jokers in these trade rumors any day of the week. Sorry for my rant, I know I repeated myself here. Expect a post on possible starting pitchers the Yanks might target coming soon!