Filling in the Question Marks: The Rotation (Part II)

Ok, folks, now we're going to look at free agents/possible trades the Yanks might make. I'm not going to bother much with my own trade speculation, just because when you're dealing with the Yankees, almost every good pitcher will have some level of trade speculation around them. Without further ado, your potential rotation cogs:

1. Mike Mussina: The Moose had a renaissance year, going 20-9 with an impressive 3.37 ERA, his first 20-win season in his illustrious career. I am all for bringing Moose back. He proved that his new style of pitching backwards works because he has such great command of his knuckle-curve that he had no problem dropping it in there for first-pitch strikes. He would probably require a 2-3 year deal. I know we want to get younger, but I think it is also important to have a veteran presence on a staff. And what better veteran than the guy who put up Cy Young numbers this season? Want to know why this season wasn't a fluke? Moose has AMAZNG control. This season, Mussina walked only 31 batters. That is the lowest mark in his ENTIRE career with at least 150 innings (he had 200.1 innings this season). On top of that, he had 150 strikeouts. I don't know about you guys, but I'll take a 4.84 K/BB ratio without question. That being said, I hear he is leaning towards retirement. Only time will tell.

2. Andy Pettite: The Pettite situation is a little bit more delicate. He has been a great Yankee, and I will always love Andy, but I think it is time to let him go. His age is catching up to him, and his breaking pitches aren't of Mussina's caliber in order to try his hand at "pitching backwards". Pettite has always relied on his fastball to set up hitters, and he just can't do it anymore. In the second half in 2008, Pettite was 4-7 with a 5.35 ERA, giving up 96 hits in 79 innings! It is time to thank Andy for his years of committment and be on our merry way. I only hope this doesn't turn into a Bernie Williams type standoff, since Pettie has expressed intered in pitching in the new stadium.

3. C.C. Sabathia: Yes, the big name everyone keeps talking about. Sabathia is 2007's AL Cy Young winner, and he finished 2008 with an impressive 17-10, a 2.70 ERA, 251 strikeouts in 253 innings, and even threw 10 complete games. He has never pitched less than 180 innings in a season. Simply put, the guy is a workhorse, and an extremely talented, lefted handed one at that. The Yankees need to make a strong push for Sabathia. With him leading a rotation followed by Wang and Joba, we will contend for the best front-3 in the league. However, I disagree with the journalists out there claiming we need to go "all in" on Sabathia. Too many years could present a problem for a guy of his weight and a guy coming off of a 253 inning season. I would go no more than 6 years on Sabathia...something like $140 million. Sabathia will open the 2009 season at the age of 28. Is 6 years really so bad? He will be a free agent at 34, which is presumably before he declines too much. At 34, we can let him walk if we please. I know there are injury risks between the 6 years, but the bottom line is this: there is a risk with EVERY pitcher. If you want to sign an impact player, you can't skimp out on the years because maybe someday in a few years his elbow will hurt. If you operate with that logic, you will be the Kansas City Royals. I can understand not wanting to give a monster contract to someone older. If Sabathia was 31 or 32, I wouldn't want to give him 6 years either. But the fact his Sabathia is in his prime, and he will remain in his prime for at least 3-5 years. And a pitcher of Sabathia's caliber will still be good in the years in which he is not great. However, there have been reports that he likes the NL, the west coast, and he enjoys hitting. We'll see.

4. Ben Sheets: If we're going to talk about a guy who injury risks aren't pure speculation, we can talk about Ben Sheets. Sheets is a very talented pitcher. He went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, and pitched 198.1 innings. Sounds good, right? Wrong. Sheets, a well known injury risk, broke down right at the end of the season with more elbow trouble. If there is ANYONE we want to avoid a multiyear deal with, it is Ben Sheets. Besides, you always have to be at least a little wary when you transfer a pitcher from the NL Central to the AL East.
UPDATE: This just in from Sheets' Agent, Casey Close:
"His forearm muscle [strain] was the equivalent of a hamstring pull and it simply needed time to rest. No real treatment was needed. He's fine and should be 100 percent in a month." Interesting. Still, he is the largest injury risk in this group.

5. A.J. Burnett: Assuming Burnett opts out of just current contract with the Blue Jays (indications are that he will), he will be a good target for the Yanks. Burnett is a well established force in the AL East, and when he is healthy he can shut down good offenses. I think Burnett's ability to stay healthy at least most of the season is underrated. In his last 5 seasons, Burnett has averaged 170.1 innings. If the Yanks can get 170 innings out of Burnett for the duration of his 3-5 year deal (that's what the guesses are around), I think the Yankees will be quite happy. Oh, and in his 3 years in the AL East since coming over from the Marlins, Burnette is a career 5-0 against the Red Sox with a 2.56 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 56.1 innings. Sign me up. He'd be cheaper than Sabathia and require less years. I do not advise signing them both, however, since I would like to see money left over to sign Teixeira.

6. Derek Lowe: Lowe is another ingruiging option, and a solid plan C if we cannot get either Sabathia or Burnett. Lowe was 14-11 this season with a nice 3.24 ERA. He's a sinker-baller like Wang. Before we jump on him for pitching in the NL West, he is also a career 70-55 in the AL East with a 3.72 ERA. The only problem with Lowe, is that he's 35, and coming off of the year he had, he will likely want at least 3 years. Do we go for it and hope he doesn't drop off? Can he still pitch in the AL East? These are all legitimate questions, but we may have to forget them and sign him anyway if Sabathia and Burnett sign elsewhere.

7. Jake Peavy: San Diego reportedly has their ace on the trading block, since there are rumors that he is unhappy there. Well, who wouldn't be kind of pissed off when you have a 2.85 ERA, a .229 BAA and you actually have a LOSING reord at 10-11? The problem is, his talent, combined with his contract (cheap and signed for 4 more seasons) together would require something along the lines of Cano, Hughes, and Kennedy, or maybe sub one out and include Austin Jackson/Jesus Montero. No thank you. This deal will never happen now that Cashman is back, but since there have been rumors of "interest" by the Yankees (and who isn't "interested" in Jake Peavy?) I figured I might as well include him.

That's really all I can think of. I would include Matt Cain maybe, but he's even a further shot that Peavy (younger, cheaper, and the Giants don't want to trade him). So in summary, sign Sabathia. If Sabathia wants too many years or just signs elsewhere, sign Burnett if he opts out. If he doesn't opt out or signs elsewhere, sign Lowe. Sign Teixeira in any event. This will be the most interesting storyline for Yankee fans to follow this offseason.