The Arbitration Logic

As you may now know, on Monday the Yankees officially declined to offer arbitration to everyone. That includes Abreu, Pettite, and Pudge Rodriquez. These three seemed to be the most likely to receive arbitration offers, but they did not. Lets take a look at why Brian Cashman decided to pass up the opportunity to net a few more draft picks.

Pudge was the easiest decision. He hit like a backup catcher for his short tenure with the Yanks, and not offering arbitration means that there is no possibility that he can return. Had Pudge accepted, we would have been saddled with him and his eight-figure salary. Good move. An aging catcher that costs a draft pick is a lot less attractive than a catcher that does not, and the last thing they need is a backup catcher that costs more than half the team.

Pettite was a little bit more interesting. With reports that the Dodgers have had conversations with Andy, it seemed that we might offer him arbitration to ensure that he doesn't end up with another team. Worst case scenario and he does sign elsewhere, then we get two draft picks. So why didn't we offer arbitration? Say we do offer arbitration. Pettite accepts, but doesn't want to take a significant pay cut. We go to an arbitration hearing, and all of a sudden we're paying our #4 pitcher $16-$18 million for a year. I know the Yankees have deep pockets, but that is a little ridiculous. No player has ever been awarded less money in an arbitration hearing. My opinion? This is a smart move. The Yanks can still negotiate a one year contract worth somewhere around $10-$12 million for a year with Pettite, and I regard those Dodger reports as nothing more than a message from Pettite's agent that they want to get moving on a deal. Pettite has already said he wants to open the new stadium. At this stage in his career, it doesn't make sense for him to go elsewhere. Unless the Dodgers completely strikeout with Manny, Sabathia, Sheets, Lowe, and all the others, I don't see them possibly offering Pettite more than he'll get from us.

Abreu seemed to be the biggest lock to get an arbitration offer, but did not. Bobby is reportedly looking for a 3-year deal, and it is known that the Mets and the Cubs are both interested. So why not offer him arbitration? He's looking for a multi-year deal anyway. What if Abreu couldn't find the money he wanted on the open market? The economy is, after all, having a surprising effect on the offseason so far. So then Abreu accepts and we're stuck with a defensive liability in right field who will cost another $16-$18 million for a year. That's a lot of money for a player on the decline.

The lack of arbitration offers tells me one thing. The Yankees and Brian Cashman are not taking any chances getting saddled with a player they are ready to move on without, especially for the kind of money involved. It also tells me that they are willing to do what it takes to get CC Sabathia in pinstripes. Cashman wants his payroll to be flexible so he can sign a pitcher or two, and maybe plug some other minor holes. Bad news for the Yanks for not getting any draft picks? Not necessarily...I say its good news, because it shows that we're serious about adding a big ticket free agent. Draft picks are in no way a sure thing. The majority of picks flame out and never make it to the majors anyway. Billy Traber was a first round pick for the Mets a few years ago. Remember him? He got cut from our bullpen before the all-star break. My point is to not get too hung up on picks. Even if we sign Sabathia and lose our first-rounder, we still get another first round pick for our failure to sign Gerrit Cole in last year's draft. So all is not lost. Now we just have to sit back and wait for a signing to get excited about.