Joba Rules

This semester I am taking an expository writing class. About a month ago we had an assignment to write a short editorial piece about a controversial topic...it could be about anything we wanted. So, naturally I decide to write mine on Joba-as-a-starter vs. Joba-in-the-'pen. I got it back the other day with a big fat "A" on top, so I figured I would post it here in case there is anybody reading this who thinks Joba should remain in the bullpen. Enjoy:

The Yankees are the most storied and successful sports franchise in history, and their fan base lives and dies by the baseball season. As such, a hot debate topic among fans has become whether or not to allow Joba Chamberlain, their promising 22 year old fireballer, to start or relieve games. In 2007, Joba was called up to the major leagues to solve the team’s bullpen issues, despite his role as a starter in the minor leagues. Joba was placed in the bullpen both to strengthen the reliever corps and to keep his own inning count down. Inning counts are typically in place to ensure that a young pitcher doesn’t blow his arm out by gradually increasing his innings over the early stages of his career.

At the start of the 2008 season, Joba found himself in the bullpen again, but this time he was slowly transitioned back to his natural place in the starting rotation. At this point, Joba still had an inning count restriction on him, and the logic was that by starting him in the bullpen and moving him back to the rotation mid-season, it would serve to keep his total innings lower. After being transitioned back to the rotation, Chamberlain continued to dominate until he was shut down in August for the remainder of the season due to a minor shoulder issue. Coming into the 2009 season, Yankees’ brass must make a decision about Chamberlain. While some insist that he should remain in the bullpen, I strongly disagree. The bullpen-crowd points to a minor shoulder injury Chamberlain endured at the end of the 2008 season, supposedly caused by too many innings. I would like to remind those who feel that way about the mechanic of pitching. Going through a windup and throwing a baseball is one of the most unnatural motions the human body can perform. That being understood, most pitchers find themselves on the disabled list at one point or another, and Chamberlain is no exception. Joba is expected to make a full recovery and be prepared for spring training.

Relief pitchers are generally pitching out of the bullpen for a reason. There might be legitimate long term injury concerns, a lack of arm endurance, or perhaps just a smaller pitch repertoire that limits a pitchers ability to go through a lineup more than once. Joba Chamberlain, however, does not have any long term injury concerns, at least that are presently apparent. Arm endurance isn’t an issue either, as he has shown that he can remain effective late into the game. Even against one of the better lineups in the league, Joba shutdown the Red Sox for seven strong innings, proving his worth late into a game. The typical reliever has 1-3 types of pitches and the typical starter has 3-6 types of pitches. Joba has 4 major league quality pitches, giving him the flexibility that relievers do not have. Oh, and he can consistently make the radar gun display a three-digit number; you can count the other pitchers that can do that on one hand.

Without a doubt, Joba Chamberlain has the talent to become one of the top pitchers in all of baseball, if his career stays on track. If that is true, then wouldn’t you want to have him play as much as possible? Normally a reliever throws about 50-80 innings in a year. A healthy starter will through upwards of 200 innings in a season. So, you tell me: would you rather have someone of Joba’s talent pitch 60 innings a year, or 200? If you said anything other than “Gee, I guess he really should start games”, then you are either wrong or a Red Sox fan.

The Yankees’ bullpen is even now much stronger than it was when Joba was originally called up. Breakout years from Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, and Phil Coke have lessened the need for Joba to pitch out of the bullpen. On top of that, we have the addition of Damaso Marte to the ‘pen and our top closer prospect, Mark Melancon, waiting in the wings. From a necessity standpoint, the Yanks may not even need Chamberlain in the bullpen. At this point, I believe the more pressing area for the team to address in the starting rotation. It is mightily convenient that Joba just happens to be poised to become the future ace of their pitching staff. This seems like an easy problem for me, and a problem that I bet most teams would like to have. Keep Chamberlain in the rotation, for his sake and the team’s sake.

The Arbitration Logic

As you may now know, on Monday the Yankees officially declined to offer arbitration to everyone. That includes Abreu, Pettite, and Pudge Rodriquez. These three seemed to be the most likely to receive arbitration offers, but they did not. Lets take a look at why Brian Cashman decided to pass up the opportunity to net a few more draft picks.

Pudge was the easiest decision. He hit like a backup catcher for his short tenure with the Yanks, and not offering arbitration means that there is no possibility that he can return. Had Pudge accepted, we would have been saddled with him and his eight-figure salary. Good move. An aging catcher that costs a draft pick is a lot less attractive than a catcher that does not, and the last thing they need is a backup catcher that costs more than half the team.

Pettite was a little bit more interesting. With reports that the Dodgers have had conversations with Andy, it seemed that we might offer him arbitration to ensure that he doesn't end up with another team. Worst case scenario and he does sign elsewhere, then we get two draft picks. So why didn't we offer arbitration? Say we do offer arbitration. Pettite accepts, but doesn't want to take a significant pay cut. We go to an arbitration hearing, and all of a sudden we're paying our #4 pitcher $16-$18 million for a year. I know the Yankees have deep pockets, but that is a little ridiculous. No player has ever been awarded less money in an arbitration hearing. My opinion? This is a smart move. The Yanks can still negotiate a one year contract worth somewhere around $10-$12 million for a year with Pettite, and I regard those Dodger reports as nothing more than a message from Pettite's agent that they want to get moving on a deal. Pettite has already said he wants to open the new stadium. At this stage in his career, it doesn't make sense for him to go elsewhere. Unless the Dodgers completely strikeout with Manny, Sabathia, Sheets, Lowe, and all the others, I don't see them possibly offering Pettite more than he'll get from us.

Abreu seemed to be the biggest lock to get an arbitration offer, but did not. Bobby is reportedly looking for a 3-year deal, and it is known that the Mets and the Cubs are both interested. So why not offer him arbitration? He's looking for a multi-year deal anyway. What if Abreu couldn't find the money he wanted on the open market? The economy is, after all, having a surprising effect on the offseason so far. So then Abreu accepts and we're stuck with a defensive liability in right field who will cost another $16-$18 million for a year. That's a lot of money for a player on the decline.

The lack of arbitration offers tells me one thing. The Yankees and Brian Cashman are not taking any chances getting saddled with a player they are ready to move on without, especially for the kind of money involved. It also tells me that they are willing to do what it takes to get CC Sabathia in pinstripes. Cashman wants his payroll to be flexible so he can sign a pitcher or two, and maybe plug some other minor holes. Bad news for the Yanks for not getting any draft picks? Not necessarily...I say its good news, because it shows that we're serious about adding a big ticket free agent. Draft picks are in no way a sure thing. The majority of picks flame out and never make it to the majors anyway. Billy Traber was a first round pick for the Mets a few years ago. Remember him? He got cut from our bullpen before the all-star break. My point is to not get too hung up on picks. Even if we sign Sabathia and lose our first-rounder, we still get another first round pick for our failure to sign Gerrit Cole in last year's draft. So all is not lost. Now we just have to sit back and wait for a signing to get excited about.

Organizational Review: Top Prospect List

On top of following the Yankees in a religious manner, I also keep close tabs on all of the organizations top prospects throughout all levels of the minors. Now that the 2008 season has come to a close and the hot stove league has yet to heat up, it is the perfect time to offer my own top prospect list. Note that to make things less confusing, I am leaving players that have MLB service time under their belts off of this list. That includes the likes of Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Gardner, etc. Also note that I perhaps put more emphasis on potential and raw skills than others may. So here are my picks for the top 10 prospects in the system:

1. Austin Jackson - CF - This kid is the real deal. His primary sport just a few years ago was basketball, so his baseball skills are still lagging behind his general athletic ability, but its catching up very quickly. He is improving on his plate discipline, getting on base more often, playing great defense, and stealing bases. Hopefully he gets MLB ready as quickly as possible, because we all know how badly we need a real center fielder.

2. Jesus Montero - C - I know he's very far away from the majors, but he is the best hitting prospect we have. He absolutely mashed the ball in class A Charleston this year, hitting .326 and 17 homers. While some scouts say his large frame may cause him to grow into a first baseman rather than a catcher, the fact remains that if he continues on his current development path, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the middle of our lineup.

3. Mark Melancon - CL - What, a relief pitcher at #3? Yeah I know, get over it. Melancon projects as the heir to the great Mariano Rivera's throne. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Melanon soared through the minors putting up ERA's 2.84, 1.81, and 2.70 through A, AA, and AAA respectively. In combined 95 innings Mark struck out 89 hitters and only gave up 69 hits. That's right, 20 more strikeouts than hits allowed. The key for him will be to bring his walks down (22), but this kid is a beast. He showed the ability to pitch anywhere from 1 out of an inning to 4 consecutive innings, and from the interviews I've seen, he has the personality of Derek Jeter: always says the right thing, always puts the team first, and emerges as a clubhouse leader.

4. Andrew Brackman - RHP - Pretty aggressive placement, I know. Brackman has thrown only 14 winter league innings since college and his subsequent TJ surgery. However, there is so much upside here its hard to ignore. Brackman is built like Randy Johnson (same height I think too - 6'10'') and can hit triple digits when he reaches back for it. This kid has an excellent fastball and a plus curveball. Watch this guy carefully.

5. Austin Romine - C - Romine is going through the system along side Montero and splitting time at catcher with him. Romine doesn't have the power that Montero does, but still hit an even .300, he strikes out less often and plays better defense. Montero's offensive skills probably outweigh Romine's defensive advantages, but Romine would register as a top catching prospect just about anywhere, and rightfully so. He's got a better shot at staying a catcher than Montero does too.

6. Dellin Betances - RHP - Pretty much the same deal as Brackman, minus the TJ surgey. Big guy (6'7''), throws really hard, and has a plus power curve. Betances was 9-4 with a 3.67 ERA for class A Charleston in 2008. While that doesn't look spectacular on the surface, you must keep in mind the mechanics problems tall, lanky pitchers have. The taller you are, generally the harder it is to repeat your motion. Randy Johnson didn't put it together until he was 25, and Betances is still only 20. This year was a huge step forward for Betances as he battles with his biggest problem: control. While he still needs to cut down on his walks, he has shown improvement there. Oh, and he struck out 135 hitters in 115 innings.

7. Zach McAllister - RHP - Another young, strong starter. Zach had a real breakout season in 2008, putting up ERAs of 2.45 and 1.83 between Charleston and Tampa respectively. Not only that, but one of Zach's strengths is a exactly what most minor league pitching prospects lack: control. He posted an impressive 5.48 K/BB ratio. As a point of comparison, CC Sabathia's 251 strikeouts in 2008 landed him with a 4.25 K/BB ratio. And he's also only 20 years old.

8. Fransisco Cervelli - C - Cervelli is our catching prospect closer to the majors. He is largely hailed as a clone of Dioner Navarro: excellent defense and a solid bat. In his injury shortened season (the infamous collision during a spring training game with the Rays), Cervelli hit .315 for AA Trenton. Cervelli would likely have gone higher on the list had he gotten more playing time, but he remains a strong possibility to be Posada's backup catcher in 2010 after Molina's contract is up, just like Posada was brought up to be tutored by Joe Girardi a decade ago.

9. Jairo Heredia - RHP - Coming off of a strong 2007 (his first professional season), Heredia posted a nice 3.20 ERA for Charleston in 2008. His 95 strikeouts in 102.1 innings is encouraging, but he needs to bring his walks down (43). A 2.21 K/BB ratio isn't impressing many people. However, the talent and the ability is there. He was more aggressive in 2008, going after hitters, getting ahead in the count. He spots his fastball very well and has a nasty curveball that, when he spots it well, is pretty much unhittable. They keys for Heredia to move up this list: work on spotting the curveball and improve the quality of his changeup. If he does those two things, he's going to be a guy to watch. And fortunately, he's got plenty of time thanks to his age. Its worth noting that his manager while he was in the Gulf Coast League in 2007 nicknamed him "Pedro Jr." because his raw stuff resembles that of a young Pedro Martinez.

10. Zachary Kroenke - LHP - Yet another talented pitching prospect (and...OMG a lefty!?!?!). In 43 AA Trenton innings, Kroenke went 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA before being called up to AAA SWB where he threw 10 innings, scattering 7 hits, 2 walks, surrendering only 2 earned runs and whiffing 10. The big lefty has good command with his fastball and is very durable. He, like many of his peers, needs to focus on development of his changeup and command in general. Kroenke is an aggressive pitcher and is adept at working both sides of the plate and keeping hitters off-balance. Depending on what happens with Phil Coke, Kroenke may be utilized in the bullpen, where he can add a few mph to his fastball.

Honorable mentions: Christian Garcia (RHP), David Robertson (RHP), Brandon Laird (3B), Juan Miranda (1B), Humberto Sanchez (RHP)

Well that's what I came up with. I have yet to see any prospect lists that reflect the entirety of the 2008 season, so I for one am curious to see whether I'm smart or completely off my rocker. Once Baseball America, Baseball Prospetus, and other reputable places come out with their own lists, I'll do a follow-up post to get to the heart of that question. Stay tuned.

Thanksgiving update

Happy Thanksgiving Yankee fans! Things have been pretty slow so far in the still-young hot stove season. But here is what is going on:

Sabathia is still sitting on the Yanks' 6 year $140 million offer. No need to be alarmed there. I know our offer would make Sabathia the most well paid pitcher in baseball, and some are interpreting his failure to jump on it as an indication that he doesn't want to sign with New York. I find this a rather naive point of view. Sabathia and his agent are simply waiting to hear out other teams and field their offers as well. I realize that nobody is going to outbid the Yankees outright, but Sabathia could be just trying to get a counter offer from the Yanks of a few million more. Still worth it if you ask me. Sabathia is a beast and our rotation goes from mediocre to above-average with his addition.

Teixeira reportedly has a few offers on the table, but nobody knows from who. Most likely Boras trying to get some leverage with the Angels. I would love to see Tex in pinstripes, but my prediction of him resigning with the Halos stands. Tex is their biggest need, so that is where they're gonna throw their money.

Burnett wants 5 years, which is a bit much considering his injury history. Speaking of which, greatn article comparing him with Ben Sheets. I'm coming around to the opinion that Sheets would be a better signing. Both are type A's (assuming Sheets is offered arbitration), both have similar stuff, and both have long injury histories. However, after looking at it closely, Sheets seems to be perhaps slightly less of a risk. And, due to a muscle tear at the end of the season he can be had for less years than Burnett. I'm guessing he would sign for 3 years, maybe with a 4th option year. So do we get Burnett, who's already 31, on a 5 year deal or Sheets, who's 30, on a 3 year deal? Either way is a gamble. Either guy could become the next Amerian Idle (Carl Pavano). Either guy could turn a corner and contribute. I'd rather hedge my bets with Sheets. I wouldnt be upset with Burnett at all, but 5 years is a lot for a guy thats only hit 200 innings 3 times in his 9-year career (one of which was 2008, which became a contract year).

That's pretty much it...I wish I had more to write, because that would mean we somebody was actually signed. Teixeira and Sabathia have both expressed that they'd like deals done before Christmas, so hopefully we'll have something soon.

Discussing the Swisher Deal

So far, the biggest move made by the Yanks in the still very young 2008 Hot Stove League has been to trade a few assorted prospects for Nick Swisher of the White Sox. Good move, bad move, or "eh" move? Despite a quick glance at Swish's 2008 batting line (.219/.332/.410), it was definitely a good move. Here's why:

Swish may have only hit .219 this year, but in all fairness, it was a down year. Swisher is more of a .250-.260 hitter (Giambi-esque) that hits for power. Despite his poor batting line, Swish still hit 24 homers and knocked in 69 runs. Swisher is capable of hitting 20-35 homers a season and can knock in close to 100 runs, as shown by his career lines (he has averaged slightly over 25 homers a season for his career). Swisher also provided better defense that Giambi at first, and has the flexibility of playing a corner OF position and occasionally CF in a pinch. Swisher is still young (27) and a former first round pick. He has good speed, he's athletic and is reported to be a great clubhouse guy. Swisher also takes a lot of walks and despite his poor BA, his OBP remains strong. At least now we have an option at first in the event Teixeira signs elsewhere.

Not to mention that we hardly gave up anything. Marquez was a decent prospect, but he got roughed up for most of the 2008 season. To be honest, Marquez had no shot of making our rotation in the near future. With guys like Wang, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy ahead of him on the depth charts a potential Sabathia signing, a potential Lowe/Burnett signing, and a plethora of minor league pitching talent below the AAA level (McCallister, Betances, Brackman, etc.), Marquez became expendable. Jhonny Nunez was basically a spare part that filled a roster spot on a minor league affiliate...no biggie there. We also gave up Wilson Betemit...oh no, not Betemit!!! Haha seriously though. We have guys in AAA that can come up and be the utility guy. Betemit will be easy to replace.

Now the pluses in terms of the Teixeira hunt: Swish gives us insurane if we don't sign him. He also gives us leverage in contract discussions with Boras and Tex...we don't NEED Tex now. We have somebody else who can legitimately play 1B for us. This could strengthen our position now that Boras can't convince the Yankees to give Teixeira a blank check.

And depth. We all saw what happened when we lost Posada and Matsui. Coupled with a down year from guys like Cano and Melky, we just didn't have the depth to plug those holes. Swisher gives us a versitile, relatively cheap player that can provide us that depth as well.

All in all, it was a great deal, and Brian Cashman is the man. Most GMs were shocked that Cash got Swisher for so little. Some experts were saying prior to the trade it would take an Ian Kennedy to get Swish. So kudos to Cashman, and keep the solutions coming!

Checking in on the Farm

Good morning Yankee fans! Sorry for the lack of posts, but its been a bit slow since we're in that weird limbo between the true start of the offseason and the Yankee-less playoffs. Curious what some of our prospects are up to so far in winter/fall leagues? The Yankees assigned a few prospects Waikiki BeachBoys (Hawaii Winter League) and the Peoria Javelinas (Arizona Fall League). For your guidance, the AFL is a higher level of competition then the HWL.

HWL:
Damon Sublett: Sublett is a young middle infield prospect with a good arm and good pop in his bat. He was impressive in his pro debut for class A- Staten Island in 2007, but fell a little short of expectations in Charleston. So far in the HWL, Sublett is hitting a healthy .289/.325/.500. I'd like to see his strikeouts go down (15 in 10 games) and his walks go up (2). Sublett isn't a top prospect, but that doesn't mean he can't learn and grow into one.

Jeremy Bleich: Bleich was the highest draft pick that we actually signed in 2008, since Gerrit Cole never signed (Bleich was taken in the supplemental round). The lefty so far in the HWL is off to a nice start at 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 4 starts. He's got 14 strikeouts in 18.1 innings and 8 walks. I'd like to see a better K/BB ratio, but 14/8 isn't too bad. Most of those walks came in his first two starts anyway.

Andrew Brackman: Our first round pic from 2007, the tall right-hander missed all of 2008 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Brackman s 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA. I know that looks ugly, but he's only pitched 14.2 innings since major elbow recontruction surgery and he hasn't thrown a pitch in over a year. Trust me, Brackman has the talent, he has the body (he's 6'10'') and he has the head. His 16 strikeouts in this 14.2 innings is a good sign, but he also needs to cut down on his walks (11). Give him some time before he gets labeled as a bust too. He was much better in his most recent start: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

Austin Romine: Romine is one of our top catching prospects. He is young, but had a standout season in class A Charleston. So far in the HWL he's hitting at .269/.355/.346. He'll turn it around. He hit .300 over the course of the Charleston season. Romine left his last game after being hit by a pitch on his wrist. No word yet on an injury, but hopefully its nothing serious.

Now for the AFL:
Juan Miranda: Miranda, our lefty hitting, righty-mashing, potential first base platoonman, is off to a hot start down in Arizona. He's played in 8 games so far, hitting an impressive .452/.514/.871. In those 8 games, Miranda has 1 homer, 2 triples, 6 doubles, and 7 RBIs. If he keeps up this pace (or even a pace below it) he will likely make the 25 man roster and may even find himself a starting gig if we don't sign Teixeira.

Austin Jackson: Our top position player prospect. Jackson got off to a hot start in his firts few games, cooled off until he dipped below the Mendoza line, and is now in th eprocess of resurging again. Currently AJax is sitting at .267/.306/.400. Obviously that is not reflective of Jackson's talent. We all know he is capable of more, especially in the hitters league that the AFL is. JThe season is still young, so I will assume he will find his groove soon enough. The main thing he needs to work on are his strikeouts. 11 K's in 11 games isn't what we want to see. However, with his recent hot hitting, he has been named to the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game. Its basially an all-star game for top-prospects.

Kevin Russo: The Yankees appear to be grooming Russo to be a super-sub kind of utility player. The heir to Wilson Betemit, I suppose. Russo doesn't have the glove that some guys to, but he's more of a healthy balance between glove and bat than a lot of utility guys. The key for Russo will be to show is versitility by playing multiple positions and keep up a decent batting line. So far Russo has impressed. He has rotated through 2B, 3B, SS, and LF so far and is holding a .323/.382/.387 batting line. Russo could make a nice piece of trade bait or another utility player if he keeps it up.

Phil Hughes: Ah, the famous Phil Phranchise. He has been struggling a bit, going 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA in his first 3 starts. His 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings is nice, but he needs to come down on his walks (8). Hopefully Phil turns it around soon. He was also named to the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game.

Jeff Marquez: He is pitching out of the bullpen this time, although he is normally a starter. He seems to be finding some success there however, as his line looks like this so far though 4 games: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 7 K. Good looking line (2.70 ERA), but he needs to come down on the walks. Maybe he'll stay in the pen if he has success there, since the Yanks have good depth for starters.

Kevin Whelan: Whelan came over in the Gary Sheffield trade. In 3 games, he's thrown 4.2 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts and only 1 walk. Whelan is also pitching out of the pen, as he usually does. He's got great stuff, but has had problems with control in the past. He could be a great future addition to our bullpen if he shows that he has finally worked out the kinks.

Humberto Sanchez: Came over in the Randy Johnson trade. He has been going back and forth between starter and reliever, but is pitching out of the pen this winter. He's off to a rough start at 0-1 13.50 ERA in 2.2 innings. Still, he's got the stuff and he is, after all, just coming back from TJ surgery as well. Give him some time.

Filling in the Question Marks: The Rotation (Part II)

Ok, folks, now we're going to look at free agents/possible trades the Yanks might make. I'm not going to bother much with my own trade speculation, just because when you're dealing with the Yankees, almost every good pitcher will have some level of trade speculation around them. Without further ado, your potential rotation cogs:

1. Mike Mussina: The Moose had a renaissance year, going 20-9 with an impressive 3.37 ERA, his first 20-win season in his illustrious career. I am all for bringing Moose back. He proved that his new style of pitching backwards works because he has such great command of his knuckle-curve that he had no problem dropping it in there for first-pitch strikes. He would probably require a 2-3 year deal. I know we want to get younger, but I think it is also important to have a veteran presence on a staff. And what better veteran than the guy who put up Cy Young numbers this season? Want to know why this season wasn't a fluke? Moose has AMAZNG control. This season, Mussina walked only 31 batters. That is the lowest mark in his ENTIRE career with at least 150 innings (he had 200.1 innings this season). On top of that, he had 150 strikeouts. I don't know about you guys, but I'll take a 4.84 K/BB ratio without question. That being said, I hear he is leaning towards retirement. Only time will tell.

2. Andy Pettite: The Pettite situation is a little bit more delicate. He has been a great Yankee, and I will always love Andy, but I think it is time to let him go. His age is catching up to him, and his breaking pitches aren't of Mussina's caliber in order to try his hand at "pitching backwards". Pettite has always relied on his fastball to set up hitters, and he just can't do it anymore. In the second half in 2008, Pettite was 4-7 with a 5.35 ERA, giving up 96 hits in 79 innings! It is time to thank Andy for his years of committment and be on our merry way. I only hope this doesn't turn into a Bernie Williams type standoff, since Pettie has expressed intered in pitching in the new stadium.

3. C.C. Sabathia: Yes, the big name everyone keeps talking about. Sabathia is 2007's AL Cy Young winner, and he finished 2008 with an impressive 17-10, a 2.70 ERA, 251 strikeouts in 253 innings, and even threw 10 complete games. He has never pitched less than 180 innings in a season. Simply put, the guy is a workhorse, and an extremely talented, lefted handed one at that. The Yankees need to make a strong push for Sabathia. With him leading a rotation followed by Wang and Joba, we will contend for the best front-3 in the league. However, I disagree with the journalists out there claiming we need to go "all in" on Sabathia. Too many years could present a problem for a guy of his weight and a guy coming off of a 253 inning season. I would go no more than 6 years on Sabathia...something like $140 million. Sabathia will open the 2009 season at the age of 28. Is 6 years really so bad? He will be a free agent at 34, which is presumably before he declines too much. At 34, we can let him walk if we please. I know there are injury risks between the 6 years, but the bottom line is this: there is a risk with EVERY pitcher. If you want to sign an impact player, you can't skimp out on the years because maybe someday in a few years his elbow will hurt. If you operate with that logic, you will be the Kansas City Royals. I can understand not wanting to give a monster contract to someone older. If Sabathia was 31 or 32, I wouldn't want to give him 6 years either. But the fact his Sabathia is in his prime, and he will remain in his prime for at least 3-5 years. And a pitcher of Sabathia's caliber will still be good in the years in which he is not great. However, there have been reports that he likes the NL, the west coast, and he enjoys hitting. We'll see.

4. Ben Sheets: If we're going to talk about a guy who injury risks aren't pure speculation, we can talk about Ben Sheets. Sheets is a very talented pitcher. He went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, and pitched 198.1 innings. Sounds good, right? Wrong. Sheets, a well known injury risk, broke down right at the end of the season with more elbow trouble. If there is ANYONE we want to avoid a multiyear deal with, it is Ben Sheets. Besides, you always have to be at least a little wary when you transfer a pitcher from the NL Central to the AL East.
UPDATE: This just in from Sheets' Agent, Casey Close:
"His forearm muscle [strain] was the equivalent of a hamstring pull and it simply needed time to rest. No real treatment was needed. He's fine and should be 100 percent in a month." Interesting. Still, he is the largest injury risk in this group.

5. A.J. Burnett: Assuming Burnett opts out of just current contract with the Blue Jays (indications are that he will), he will be a good target for the Yanks. Burnett is a well established force in the AL East, and when he is healthy he can shut down good offenses. I think Burnett's ability to stay healthy at least most of the season is underrated. In his last 5 seasons, Burnett has averaged 170.1 innings. If the Yanks can get 170 innings out of Burnett for the duration of his 3-5 year deal (that's what the guesses are around), I think the Yankees will be quite happy. Oh, and in his 3 years in the AL East since coming over from the Marlins, Burnette is a career 5-0 against the Red Sox with a 2.56 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 56.1 innings. Sign me up. He'd be cheaper than Sabathia and require less years. I do not advise signing them both, however, since I would like to see money left over to sign Teixeira.

6. Derek Lowe: Lowe is another ingruiging option, and a solid plan C if we cannot get either Sabathia or Burnett. Lowe was 14-11 this season with a nice 3.24 ERA. He's a sinker-baller like Wang. Before we jump on him for pitching in the NL West, he is also a career 70-55 in the AL East with a 3.72 ERA. The only problem with Lowe, is that he's 35, and coming off of the year he had, he will likely want at least 3 years. Do we go for it and hope he doesn't drop off? Can he still pitch in the AL East? These are all legitimate questions, but we may have to forget them and sign him anyway if Sabathia and Burnett sign elsewhere.

7. Jake Peavy: San Diego reportedly has their ace on the trading block, since there are rumors that he is unhappy there. Well, who wouldn't be kind of pissed off when you have a 2.85 ERA, a .229 BAA and you actually have a LOSING reord at 10-11? The problem is, his talent, combined with his contract (cheap and signed for 4 more seasons) together would require something along the lines of Cano, Hughes, and Kennedy, or maybe sub one out and include Austin Jackson/Jesus Montero. No thank you. This deal will never happen now that Cashman is back, but since there have been rumors of "interest" by the Yankees (and who isn't "interested" in Jake Peavy?) I figured I might as well include him.

That's really all I can think of. I would include Matt Cain maybe, but he's even a further shot that Peavy (younger, cheaper, and the Giants don't want to trade him). So in summary, sign Sabathia. If Sabathia wants too many years or just signs elsewhere, sign Burnett if he opts out. If he doesn't opt out or signs elsewhere, sign Lowe. Sign Teixeira in any event. This will be the most interesting storyline for Yankee fans to follow this offseason.